Will a Clear Democrat Leader Emerge From Super Tuesday?
YEEEESSS, for me! The one and only Barack Obama.
It won't be an easy victory because Hillary Clinton has her staunch followers and supporters and not everyone is enamoured with Barack. His impact is not yet understood by the diehards, though the need for change has certainly hit home with many younger voters, independent voters and some undecideds.
Expect a tremendous fight to the finish but a victorious winner to take the laurels, one who will be going on to get the nomination, and it will be Barack.
Counting the Ways Barack Obama is now President-in-Waiting
Unlike many people, I have had faith in Barack Obama's ability to be President of the United States from the first time I saw his photo taken on a trip to Kenya. I had never heard of him and wondered why they were making a fuss of this man, referring to him as their 'returning Son'. His manner, presence and aspirations intrigued me and I began to follow his progress. Soon I was also inspired by this relative unknown, even having the audacity myself to make a bet with Bill Harrison, the Vine's known political pundit, last year August, barely two months on the Vine, that my instincts told me he would win. Bill was a little dismissive of my instincts. Armed with his facts and precedents, he did not feel my optimism matched up to the evidence or the prevailing opinions and gladly took the bet. But here we are, almost a year down the line, with my instincts about to be massively vindicated and I am completely hooked.
I have watched as Barack has grown in stature to confound even his sternest critic. But that has not surprised me in the least because of three attributes he clearly possesses, which his opponent lacks: leadership, empathy with others and the ability to take others with him. Those are powerful skills which cannot be bought in any shape or form.
1. LEADERSHIP: Barack's leadership is shown in three main ways:
a. First, the unity of his team, the way they all pull together from start to finish without any need to hire and fire midstream. That is essential to maintain morale, to affirm the good job people are doing and to help those team members feel part of the overall success when it is all over. Under the guidance of formidable campaign manager, David Plouffe, Barack has grown incredibly smarter in a short time which has allowed his natural leadership to gradually take centre-stage. He and his team come across as a tightly knit group, supporting each other, being united in their aims and being there for one another. Contrast that to the divisions already noted in the Clinton team and how she deals with setbacks by blaming her staff and getting rid of them when most of the work has been done.
b. Second, his ability to stay on topic and focused. Even when he was getting it from all sides in South Carolina, from the twin-headed Clintons, he still kept his cool. He did allow himself to be dragged into the odd skirmish, but once he saw the folly of that, he quickly withdrew to his usual position of disdain above the fray and asserted his leadership acumen in that instance. Mistakes are inevitable when one is new and has to learn. But what an incredible personal base to start from.
c. Third, his obvious knack of making decisions which matter. He did not lose his cool even when he lost New Hampshire, especially when he was supposed to have won it, according to the polls. In fact, he put that quickly behind him, taking quite a few other states after that which shows superb leadership skills, even in the face of defeat. It is easy to regress into victim and loser mode, to criticise your oponent when they win or to denigrate that win to feel better. But Barack's 'victory' speech in defeat said it all. It was a masterpiece of campaigning and looking ahead rather than wallowing in regret and envy.
2.EMPATHY: Barack's ability to empathise might not come across fully to those who are not supporters, but as a member of his website and the way he looks after all his state-wide teams, I have been able to experience that empathy first hand. Asking all members to send encouraging letters, motivating everyone through his team and building up a formidable network of grassroots support is simply amazing. You tend to feel part of a family group than just backing a candidate. It makes you want to send out that kind word to a Precinct Captain and to chivvy them along, even if you cannot be there with them. Consistently throughout, for Barack it is all about 'Thank you', being fired up and moving forward, and being part of a movement rather than just a voter who is here today and forgotten tomorrow. And that has been the biggest difference between him and Hillary. There is genuine care in his approach to others. Note how quickly Hillary leaves all the losing states as soon as the results are known. The perception is that she no longer needs them now that some voters rejected her. That is terribly sad because overt appreciation is one of the strongest reinforcements that bring people to us and also keeps them with us. His Christmas broadcast was a masterstroke of people empathy by aligning with families and their values at that sensitive time, and without any overt campaigning too.
3. PERSUASION: This is the greatest gift Barack Obama seems to possess, to bring people over to his way of thinking. Slowly, but surely, he has changed people's perception of him, changed their perception of themselves and changed America's perception of its own possibilities through change. That is why he won eight states in a row over the last few days. Nothing succeeds like success and Barack is now regarded, without doubt, as a true winner. Watch the remaining states line up behind him because very few people want to be on the losing side. From being a mere possibility, when Hillary was constantly leading and preening herself, getting complacent about him, Obama has emerged as the true president-in-waiting, with the patience, self-belief and fortitude to overcome race and gender issues to present his own vision and have it gradually accepted by the sceptics. His speeches have been so inspirational and motivational, it is easy to see why people want to be a part of this historical happening, and to share that vision. They want to be there some time in the future telling their children and grandchildren about the moment America looked inside itself and began to value everyone by jettisoning its negative past and putting a greater value on its future. To simply say, "I was there when it happened".
Yes, indeed, and so was I. :o)
We would be rather foolish and shortsighted to underestimate the magnitude of what this fascinating man is currently achieving.
The Best Thing Hillary Clinton Could do For March 4th
Hillary Clinton has already lost, even though she is pinning her hopes on Texas and Ohio. The problem with using a specific marker for anything important is that there tends to be no Plan B, if the original aim does not go to plan. Hillary did not begin to lose with the primaries in 2008, she began to lose much earlier than that, in 2007, in fact, and the best thing she could do for her dignity and the Democratic Party is to gracefully concede on March 3rd with her dignity intact. Otherwise, it could prove rather humiliating for her on the big day.
Hillary began the slippery slide to being a loser in 2007 with the following actions:
1. Her early and sustained lead lulled her into a false sense of security where she completely underestimated her opponent. Underdogs can be lethal because they have nothing to lose and everything to gain, especially the glory of competing and besting the opposition, the one expected to win. That carries such a sweet smell of success for the challenger. As long as she was in the lead, she couldn't take that for granted. But she did, very often, even apparently telling friends on the phone at every opportunity, "When I'm in the White House...."
Really? It was that certain, eh? Wow!
Notice not a humble 'if', or a 'maybe', but a 'when'. That kind of arrogance tempts fate. Fate was obviously tempted and reacted with a vengeance. Politics is such a transient pastime because its success depends on the fickleness of the public. They do not like people who take their votes for granted or ungracious people who cannot even thank supporters or the opponent when they win. She clearly thought that her lead was invincible and could not be breached and is paying for that arrogance now.
2. Like many political pundits in the country, and commentators here on the Vine, people had only their old mindsets to go on, the same old perspectives to use to judge the new election. But we cannot move into a technological age where the rules are different and use the same old narrow mindsets to serve new purposes. Barack Obama was written off before he even began his campaign, almost like a court jester to Hillary's serious purpose. To those knowledgeable commentators, he had not a hope in hell of beating the Clinton darling who had so much 'experience' and pedigree. Her team certainly didn't give him any chance of beating her either, otherwise she would have treated him with much more caution and respect from the very beginning.
Barack Obama is now regarded as 'a phenomenon' by members of her team, but it took a lot of beatings for them to concede that of him. I mentioned last year in another article (Four Key Reasons...) that Obama was like the Google juggernaut that no one could actually see approaching until it was flattening them, and that is what has happened to Hillary Clinton. He had to almost run her over before she acknowledged his presence. When there is massive change afoot, the last people who will see it are those with closed minds, insecurity in their usual comfort zones and fear of the future. They believe ignoring it, belittling it, shutting it out or speaking of it in a derogatory manner will keep the change away, keep them safe in their usual hideaways. But we can never ignore change when its time has come and America itself could not have continued the way it has been over the past 8 years. A change had to come at some point, and this is it.
3. The Man himself. Hillary and her team totally underestimated the charismatic and appealing power and sheer determination of Barack Obama. Alarm bells should have rung out when he started getting all those donations from people being excited by his presence and vision. People don't support losers. They saw something amazing in him and were willing to give their hard earned dollars to get him up there. He is a formidable person who, whether one loves or hates him, has to be admired for his sheer tenacity, bravado and messages of hope.
Whether Barack is successful in the white House or not is not the real point here. He would have acted as a catalyst to get people to begin the self-reviewing process to make the USA a much better place because they can never be the same again after this year's elections. A lot of old mindsets would have been replaced as people gradually begin to realise the age they are in and what is now required to go forward. All of those cosy cobwebs would have been blown away in the process.
Yes, Hillary should do the honourable thing and concede defeat on March 3rd, with head held high. But I hope she doesn't because then her supporters might think she 'helped' Barack to win. By taking it to the bitter end, Barack will leave no doubt as to the force he now has behind him to confirm that change. It should be very interesting to see what happens in Ohio and Texas and many people are waiting with bated breaths. Never have two states had so much riding on them!
5 things America needs to change in its presidential elections
Thanks to Newsvine, I have been able to watch the American elections from close quarters, to see the progress or fall of the leading candidates and to even have my two cents worth from the hustings through my favoured candidate, Barack Obama. I have to admit that if Obama were not in the race, I would have favoured Hillary Clinton. It just so happens that there are two history-making candidates with different advantages in the frame this year and that has presented a difficult choice to their supporters who would like to see either of them win.
For years, there appeared to be no other choices but white males for the public to elect and then, like busses in a row, two other choices pull up at the same time. No wonder the nation seems to be heavily divided and confused, not because Clinton or Obama is so different from each other, or better than the other, but because the election has become unpredictable and exciting for the very first time, particularly for the Democrats. For women and minorities, it is really hard to know which way to go. And if you are a woman AND a minority, jeeez!
However, from across the Pond, a few things haven't made sense in the selection process and I think they need to change for fairness to be seen to be done when the dust has settled.
First, the length of the campaign: It is far too long. It should start much later in the current president's term and last only a year, no more than that, so that everything is conducted in his/her final year and then a hand-over at the end of it. Such a long campaign is debilitating and divisive. It needs to be briskly conducted and no hopers winnowed out quickly to concentrate on the leaders. That should dramatically cut down on the next factor, money.
Second, the money required: It is obscene to need so much money to elect a president of the USA. The only message that gives is that money makes a president, nothing else. The ones with the most money and loudest shout appear to win the race. That could also be why the 'wrong' people are perceived to be nominated for elections. Yet being president of America is the country's highest office and should be treated with the respect it deserves. It shouldn't be a time when the media makes a killing out of the candidates through advertising because all adverts should carry a hefty discount, or even be free, for example, to get the messages to the people as much as possible.
Third, the location of the first primaries: All early primaries should be rotated around the country so that every state has a chance to benefit from the clear economic gains of being the first primary and also have a say in who the first winners are. To keep having the same states as front runners every time leads to jealousy, feelings of being sidelined and a desire to get in on the action, which happened to Michigan and Florida this year when they were penalised for wanting their primaries earlier. Yet it is very natural to want that kind of media and economic benefit for one's state that Iowa and New Hampshire appear to enjoy each election. In today's media world it clearly does not make sense to have the same two states enjoying that first privilege every time. It really isn't fair to the other states who have to watch from the sidelines with a silent voice wishing they could be part of the action.
Fourth, the elitist presence of super delegates: There should be no super delegates in any fair elections, especially with the anomalous position of favouring someone their states voted against, neither should there be any clear support from governors for candidates until the convention. Something seems wrong to me that Gov. Strickand of Ohio openly favours Hillary Clinton and is campaigning for her, hoping she wins, when there are two candidates fighting for that state. Surely, that does not make for a fair contest from the very beginning? No governor should indicate their personal choice until after a primary. That makes for a more level playing field to start with, especially in such a crucial contest as Texas and Ohio.
Fifth, the practice of endorsements: No one publicly endorses someone unless they want something in the process, even if it is simple acknowledgement, association with, or support from the perceived winner. I think endorsements can come after the person is in the White House, when they have got there on their own steam and their own efforts and owe no one anything. But are all these people coming out of the woodwork to endorse a candidate a good thing for the country? Will they want some kind of payback at some time? And how can one please all those disparate interests and expectations? Endorsements imply that a person is not good on their own merit until someone else says so, that they are inadequate until propped up by some group or person, which is why America is in the mess it is in from too many party and lobbying interests. Endorsements tie presidents to unwritten promises and give undue privilege to certain sections of society which immediately disenfranchise the rest of the population.
I think if these five factors were to be changed, there would be a fairer and clearer election process. This is the Internet age and it has had the biggest influence on the 2008 election, a clear pointer the future elections. Things cannot run the way they used to run, as Obama's very successful campaign has demonstrated .
And to anyone who might be tempted to say that 'this is how things have always been done', a genuine desire for all -round change among the population is why Barack Obama is now leading the field!
(Picture: [courtesy Sen.Obama's office] Perhaps with an eye to the difficult job he would have to do, the Senator poses in front of the Superman Statue in downtown Metropolis, IL (2006).